According to the Herman Trend Alert (written by Joyce Gioia, strategic business futurist, Certified Management Consultant, author and professional speaker), a recent report in the MIT Technology Review shows that in the first three years after
their first introduction into the U.S., sales of Electric
Vehicles (EVs) have exceeded the number of hybrids sold in their first
three years by at least 50 percent. The first EV introduced into the
U.S. was the General Motors EV1 in 1997; the EV1 had an approximate
range of 55 to 95 miles and the cost was $49,350. Today, one of the most
popular EVs is the Nissan Leaf with a range of 75 miles and a price tag
of $28,800.
The top five countries where EVs are the most popular are the U.S.,
Japan, France, China and the United Kingdom. The U.S. leads the world in
EV sales with 71,174 units sold; Japan is at 44,727; and China is at
11,573. The forecast is for China’s number to increase quickly –
presuming the economic slowdown is not severe.
Over the years, the car companies and governments have spent billions of
US dollars ($6.7 billion) in research and development to extend battery
life, and according to the MIT article, it has paid off. In 2008, batteries for electric cars cost
$1,000/kilowatt hour; by 2012, the cost was less than half that number
($485).
In 1997, when hybrids were first introduced, there were
relatively few manufacturers and the cost was fairly high; now in 2013,
many of the major manufacturers are offering EVs and the prices are
almost reasonable for the investment. Plus, the government is helping
things along with tax rebates.
That said, growth curve for EVs is not expected to continue
indefinitely, because many people buy vehicles to take them distances
greater than 100 miles. However, now that the cost of hybrids has
dropped and people are more conscious of emitting hydrocarbons into the
air, sales of hybrids are forecasted to accelerate.
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